New research provides evidence that increased air pollution, specifically fine particulate matter, impacts the performance of National Football League (NFL) teams, with a notable impact on the productivity of offensive plays, particularly passing plays. The findings have been published in Economics & Human Biology.
With increasing concerns over air quality and its implications on public health and productivity, this study aimed to understand how air pollution affects team productivity, a relatively underexplored aspect. The choice of the NFL as a study context was driven by the highly strategic and team-oriented nature of football, which could provide clear insights into how pollution impacts physical and mental performance.
“There is a growing literature on the impact of air quality on employee performance. A lot of it uses data from sports but none from the NFL. I had another research project in process that uses play-level NFL data and this was a natural extension for those data,” said study author Brad R. Humphreys, the Associate Dean for Academic Affairs and Research and Professor of Economics at the John Chambers College of Business and Economics at the West Virginia University.
For their study, the researchers analyzed approximately 90,000 offensive plays from around 900 NFL games played between 2008 and 2016. This large sample provided a robust dataset for examining the nuances of team performance under varying environmental conditions.
The specific measure used was the concentration of particulate matter less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter (PM2.5) in the air. PM2.5 is known to have adverse health effects and is a common pollutant resulting from various sources like vehicle emissions and industrial activities. The researchers tracked this data from monitoring stations close to the NFL stadiums to ensure accuracy in capturing the game-day air quality.
The study’s analysis involved assessing the yards gained per offensive play, focusing particularly on passing plays. This metric was chosen because it reflects the collective effort of the team and is crucial in determining the outcome of a game. The researchers controlled for various factors, such as team composition, game-week, and season-specific factors, to isolate the impact of air pollution from other variables.
The researchers found that for each microgram increase of PM2.5 per cubic meter of air near the stadium, offensive teams gained an additional 0.5 inches of yardage per play. This translated to about 4.3 additional yards for passing plays over a game with a standard deviation increase in PM2.5. Essentially, teams were slightly more successful on offense in more polluted conditions, an effect attributed to the impaired response of the defensive players to the offensive plays.
This finding is significant as it suggests that air pollution doesn’t just have health and economic implications, but it also impacts team dynamics and performance, particularly in roles requiring quick reaction and coordination. The results are particularly relevant for understanding how environmental factors can influence outcomes in team-based work settings, beyond just sports.
“Air quality can negatively affect job performance, especially in jobs with physical requirements,” Humphreys told PsyPost. “Although, there is also evidence that mental cognition is affected. For football fans, if their team travels to a game in a city with worse air quality, their team could be at a disadvantage. For people who bet on sports, you might want to look at local air quality before placing a bet on an NFL team.”
While the study provides valuable insights, it also has its limitations. One major limitation is the inability to control for all game-day variables, such as team strategies and individual player conditions, which might also influence play outcomes. Additionally, the study primarily focuses on one pollutant type (PM2.5) and does not comprehensively cover other pollutants, like ozone, which was found to have no significant impact in this context.
Future research could expand on these findings by exploring other sports or team-based activities to see if similar patterns emerge. Another potential avenue is to analyze the impact of different types of pollutants, or a combination of them, on team performance. Moreover, studies could delve deeper into understanding the mechanisms behind how air pollution specifically affects player performance, both physically and cognitively.
“We have not completely nailed down the underlying mechanisms that explain why the defense is affected more than the offense,” Humphreys said.
The study, “Air quality and employee performance in teams: Evidence from the NFL“, was authored by Brad R. Humphreys and Jane E. Ruseski.